Séminaire GREDEG : Antonella STIRATI (Roma Tre University)

Publié le 17 mai 2023 Mis à jour le 25 mai 2023

le 24 mai 2023

14H00- 15h30 Salle Picasso
GREDEG - Bâtiment 2 - Campus Azur du CNRS - 250 rue Albert Einstein - SOPHIA ANTIPOLIS

Reverse hysteresis? Persistent effects of autonomous demand expansions

Empirical works documenting highly persistent effects of negative demand shocks
(‘hysteresis’) have questioned the prevailing wisdom that potential output is exogenous to aggregate demand fluctuations. We assess whether the effects of positive demand shocks also tend to persist beyond the short run. We estimate the impact of 126 aggregate demand expansions in OECD countries between 1960 and 2015 through local projections, using a dynamic two-way fixed-effects model and a propensity scorebased specification. We find that demand expansions exert positive persistent effects on GDP, participation rate and capital stock. Effects on the unemployment rate and productivity are also strong and quite persistent, but evidence regarding their permanence is mixed. The effect on the inflation rate is positive but small and imprecisely estimated, and there is no sign of accelerating inflation. Our results bear relevant implications for existing models of hysteresis and for theories of demand-led growth.

Short bio: Antonella Stirati is currently professor of Economics at Roma Tre University.
She studied economics at the University of Siena (laurea in Scienze Economiche), Cambridge UK (M.Phil degree) and La Sapienza (PhD).
Her research interests are in the development of the Classical-Keynesian approach, particularly in the fields of output and
employment determination, income distribution, and unemployment. She wrote a book on The Theory of Wages in Classical Economics (Elgar, 1994), co-edited the three-volumes collection Sraffa and the Reconstruction of Economic Theory, (Palgrave-macmillan, 2013) and published a number of articles in academic journals and collected volumes.
Her article on Inflation, Unemployment and Hysteresis has been selected as one of the best 25 articles published in the Review of Political Economy since the journal was first issued. She is also active in scientific popularization and intervenes in public debates on current issues.
She co-edits the on-line journal Economia e politica.

Le 24 mai 2023 14:00 - 15:30