Séminaire GREDEG :Adrien Querbes-Revier (Manchester Business School)

Title: How firms search and shape in rugged ecosystems

Abstract: This study advances theory on ecosystem evolution by modeling how serendipity emerges as an endogenous property of collective design. Using a computational model, we show that the productivity of serendipity depends on the evolving balance between the diffusion of interdependencies (connectivity) and the alignment of firms’ market shaping efforts (coalitional coherence). Three evolutionary regimes arise: unchecked (turbulent mutual shaping), constrained (localized stability), and coordinated (constructive adaptation). The findings reveal that neither full openness nor tight control ensures cumulative innovation. Instead, moderate interdependence combined with coalitional alignment allows local discoveries to scale into systemic transformation. This reframes market shaping from an act of orchestration to a distributed process of coalition formation, where serendipitous innovation stems from relational alignment rather than chance.