Séminaire de Carlo Zappia – University of Siena

Publié le 26 mars 2021 Mis à jour le 10 avril 2021
Date(s)

le 8 avril 2021

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14h  Zoom -
Carlo Zappia – University of Siena
Title: From Knightian to Keynesian Uncertainty: contextualizing Ellsberg’s ambiguity

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ID de réunion : 873 5163 0642
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Séminaires GREDEG
Séminaires GREDEG

Title: From Knightian to Keynesian Uncertainty: contextualizing Ellsberg’s ambiguity

Carlo Zappia – University of Siena

Abstract: This paper examines to which extent Daniel Ellsberg’s notion of ambiguity was thought by his author as a step towards an all comprehensive analysis of uncertainty, in the footsteps of Knight and Keynes. The paper presents Ellsberg’s rationale underlying the paradox by placing his contribution in the context of the crucial biographical episodes of the 1950s and early 1960s that originated its presentation. It is argued that Ellsberg’s choice to confine himself to choices related to urns containing coloured balls cannot be taken as indication that he was not interested in true, fundamental uncertainty. Rather, after starting his investigation to revive the relevance of Knight’s uncertainty he realized that his own analysis was even more in agreement with Keynes’s Treatise on Probability. What is more, the analysis of at-the-time classified research he undertook in the early 1960s, research that has remained up till now unknown in the economics literature, makes it possible to argue that fundamental uncertainty was the main thread of his commitment to decision-making as field of applied research.


 

Date(s)
Le 8 avril 2021 00:00
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