Publié le 1 septembre 2026
–
Mis à jour le 2 septembre 2026
Date(s)
le 17 septembre 2026
GREDEG
Title:
Who Is Most at Risk? Uncovering the Determinants of Population Vulnerability to Heat Waves in France
Abstract :
Heat waves are becoming more frequent in France, raising concerns about their public health impacts. Using Emergency Unit Territories as a spatial unit, we examine how exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity shape vulnerability to extreme heat by collecting environmental, demographic, socioeconomic and health access data at the municipality level. Our results show that high temperatures and age significantly increase hospital admissions and emergency room visits, while wealth and vegetation mitigate health risks. Additional factors, such as high humidity, the share of foreigners, limited mobility, and greater distance to emergency services exacerbate heat-related vulnerability within a territory. These findings challenge assumptions about the primary drivers of heat vulnerability and highlight the importance of targeted policies, such as strengthening support networks for elderly individuals. Finally, projection exercises using the RCP4.5 scenario allow us to simulate the evolution of hospital admissions and the number of hospital beds needed to cope with the adverse effects of rising temperatures by the end of the century.
Who Is Most at Risk? Uncovering the Determinants of Population Vulnerability to Heat Waves in France
Abstract :
Heat waves are becoming more frequent in France, raising concerns about their public health impacts. Using Emergency Unit Territories as a spatial unit, we examine how exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity shape vulnerability to extreme heat by collecting environmental, demographic, socioeconomic and health access data at the municipality level. Our results show that high temperatures and age significantly increase hospital admissions and emergency room visits, while wealth and vegetation mitigate health risks. Additional factors, such as high humidity, the share of foreigners, limited mobility, and greater distance to emergency services exacerbate heat-related vulnerability within a territory. These findings challenge assumptions about the primary drivers of heat vulnerability and highlight the importance of targeted policies, such as strengthening support networks for elderly individuals. Finally, projection exercises using the RCP4.5 scenario allow us to simulate the evolution of hospital admissions and the number of hospital beds needed to cope with the adverse effects of rising temperatures by the end of the century.
